Aerospace Market Research: Methods for Defense and Commercial

The global aerospace market size is USD 402.75 billion in 2025. It's projected to reach USD 846.30 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 7.71% from 2026 to 2035. If you're doing pre-investment diligence, market entry work, or competitive analysis in aerospace and defense, you need research methods that match the complexity and stakes of this industry.

Executive summary: why aerospace market research matters in 2026

The aerospace market is one of the largest, most regulated, and most capital-intensive sectors in the world. North America held a 46% revenue share of the aerospace market in 2025, with the U.S. aerospace market valued at USD 129.69 billion in 2025 and expected to grow to USD 278.67 billion by 2035. Asia Pacific is the fastest-growing region in the aerospace market. These numbers matter because they define where capital flows, where supply chains concentrate, and where risk lives.

Three forces are running simultaneously. Commercial aviation demand is fueled by rising middle-class populations in Asia, Latin America, and the middle east. Defense rearmament since 2022 has pushed global defense spending upward, expected to drive military aerospace demand for the rest of the decade. And heavy government funding is expanding the market for satellites and space exploration, with the global space economy projected to exceed USD 1.8 trillion by 2035.

Effective aerospace market research lets you:

• Size markets accurately across commercial, defense, and space segments using reconciled top-down and bottoms-up methods.
• Pressure-test investment theses before committing capital, catching certification delays and supply chain risks early.
• Benchmark major players like Lockheed Martin, RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies Corporation), Airbus SE, and BAE Systems plc against contract pipelines and program exposure.
• Understand regional risk, from export controls to shifting procurement priorities in North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific.

FieldSignal is a pay-per-use expert network built for this kind of work. No annual retainer, no minimum commitment, transparent per-call pricing. If you've been priced out of GLG or AlphaSights contracts, or burned by low-quality marketplace alternatives, you can run high-stakes aerospace and defense research without the six-figure overhead.

Core segments of the aerospace and defense market

When you research "aerospace and defense," you're really covering four distinct buckets: commercial aviation, defense platforms and systems, space and satellite, and adjacent mobility (UAM, eVTOL, electric aircraft). Each has its own demand drivers, competitive dynamics, and data sources. Treating them as one blob is how analyses go wrong.

A full commercial aviation breakdown should include:

• Aircraft OEMs (narrow-body, wide-body, regional jets) and aircraft manufacturers like Boeing, Airbus SE, Embraer, COMAC, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
• Tier-1 systems: avionics, aircraft electrical systems, in-flight entertainment and connectivity (IFEC), and passenger experience platforms. Key players here include Honeywell International, Collins Aerospace, and Thales Group.
• MRO (maintenance, repair, overhaul), where aging fleets are driving sustained demand for parts and maintenance services in aerospace.
• Air traffic management systems, airport infrastructure, and airline operations software.
• Aerospace components and advanced materials, including composites, aerostructures, and aircraft batteries.

For defense-focused segments, break out:

• Military aircraft and helicopters, including fighters (F-35, F-15EX), transports, and traditional aircraft modernization.
• Unmanned aerial systems, UAVs, loitering munitions, and unmanned systems broadly.
• Integrated air and missile defense systems, directed energy weapons, and defense systems like LTAMDS and IBCS.
• Defense cybersecurity, command-and-control, and satellite communication for military applications, with suppliers like Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and General Dynamics.

Space and satellite segments to cover:

• Satellite services (broadband, Earth observation, navigation) and companies like Iridium Communications.
• Small satellites, LEO constellations, and ground stations including VSAT terminals.
• Optical satellite communication, space situational awareness, and infrastructure for space missions.
• Space tourism, a rapidly growing market segment, with space tourism investments increasing for commercial space travel.

Enabling components matter for bottoms-up modeling: aerostructures, aerospace bearings, advanced composites, aircraft batteries and fuel cells, and propulsion systems. These sub-segments feed into cost models for both traditional and next-generation platforms. Typical aerospace reports use forecast period horizons of 2026 to 2030 (short-term) and 2031 to 2035 (mid-term) to separate ramp-up risk from steady-state demand.

A massive backlog exceeding 14,000 aircraft is causing production bottlenecks in the aerospace industry. Commercial aerospace now has backlogs representing over 10 years of production at current rates. That single data point reshapes how you model OEM revenue, supplier capacity, and aftermarket timing.

Quantitative methods: sizing aerospace markets and forecasting demand

Aerospace market sizing must reconcile top-down macro forecasts (GDP growth, airline traffic, defense budgets) with bottoms-up platform data: production rates, order backlogs, fleet-in-service counts, retrofit cycles. If you only use top-down, you'll miss program-level bottlenecks. If you only use bottoms-up, you'll miss macro shifts.

Core quantitative techniques:

• Collect at least 10 years of historical delivery data by aircraft class (narrow-body, wide-body, regional, military).
• Model fleet-in-service by platform, including retirements and average fleet age trends. Oliver Wyman projects the global fleet rising from roughly 29,000 aircraft in 2025 to about 38,300 by 2035.
• Build 10- to 15-year production forecasts tied to OEM backlogs, noting that production is hampered by pandemic-era disruptions and skilled labor shortages.
• Map aftermarket cycles: the global commercial aftermarket MRO demand will grow at a 3.2% CAGR from 2026 to 2035, anchored by rising fleet ages and deferred maintenance.

Scenario planning for commercial aviation should include:

• Baseline case: current supply chain trajectory, moderate demand growth.
• Constrained supply case: delays from raw material shortages, semiconductor scarcity, certification holdups. The aerospace and defense sector faces significant operational constraints and growth opportunities simultaneously.
• Aggressive fleet renewal case: high fuel prices, carbon regulation, rapid adoption of new aircraft types. The sustainable aviation fuel market is projected to reach USD 31.45 billion by 2031.

For defense spending modeling:

• Link NATO's 2%-of-GDP targets and the U.S. FY2026 defense budget request of USD 153.3 billion in procurement, with reconciliation proposals potentially adding USD 51.9 billion.
• Map specific programs (F-35 lot buys, missile defense, C-UAS) to vendor revenue projections for Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman, and BAE Systems.
• Account for cost escalation: the F-35's acquisition unit cost rose from roughly $151 million to $162 million in a single year due to software, spare parts inflation, and schedule delays.

Segment-level CAGR estimates for sub-markets (in-flight entertainment, aircraft health monitoring, AI in aviation, UAVs) come from public filings, contract awards, and order intake trends. The aerospace support sector is expected to grow at 8.5% CAGR, driven by rising demand for digital transformation in fleet management and support services.

Qualitative methods: expert interviews, field insight, and competitive intelligence

Numbers don't account for certification risk, regulatory delays, export controls, or the politics inside a program office. In aerospace, these factors routinely shift revenue timelines by one to four years. Expert-level qualitative research fills that gap.

Types of experts you should target:

• Former program managers at Airbus, Boeing, or Embraer who've shipped platforms from design through entry into service.
• Ex-strategy leads from BAE Systems, Lockheed Martin, or General Dynamics who understand capture strategies and competitive dynamics.
• MRO leaders at engine shops and maintenance providers, including executives at organizations connected to GE or Honeywell engine programs.
• SATCOM architects and air traffic management engineers who can assess new systems integration timelines.
• Former procurement officers in the Air Force, Navy, or defense ministries who know how down-selects actually work.
• Certification engineers from FAA or EASA who can reality-check timeline claims.

Interview objectives in aerospace market research:

• Validate actual adoption timelines for electric aircraft and more-electric aircraft architectures.
• Understand bottlenecks in aircraft electrical systems, avionics certification, and autonomous systems integration.
• Pressure-test assumptions about AI in aviation and digital MRO. Geopolitical tensions can disrupt aerospace supply chains, and experts surface those risks faster than models.
• Assess competitive dynamics: who's winning contracts, who's losing, and why.

FieldSignal runs this work through pay-per-call expert consultations with no minimum volume, curated panels of 3 to 5 insiders per thesis to avoid single-source bias, structured questionnaires for customer satisfaction studies alongside open-format interviews, and transcript libraries organized around recurring themes like connected aircraft, UAV payloads, and advanced systems.

FieldSignal's compliance controls and expert vetting match the standards of Third Bridge, Guidepoint, and other established networks. Conflict checks, NDAs, and background verification are standard. The difference: these controls are accessible to firms outside the Fortune 500, with no retainer required.

Here's a mini-example. Suppose you're doing pre-deal diligence on an AI-enabled avionics supplier. You'd model their revenue using historical OEM wins and backlog. Then you'd run 4 to 6 expert calls with former avionics program leads at Boeing and Airbus to understand adoption lags and certification hurdles. You'd compare findings against public contracts and check how supply chain constraints (semiconductors, radiation-hardened components) could delay deliveries versus the company's projections.

Researching commercial aviation: passengers, fleets, IFEC, and aftermarket

Commercial aviation accounts for roughly half the global aerospace market by revenue. It's driven by air travel recovery, fleet expansion, and airline profitability cycles. The industry is pushing investment in next-generation aircraft technology for fuel efficiency, and companies are investing in automation and digital transformation to increase production capacity.

Fleet and OEM research priorities:

• Track order backlogs through 2032 for narrow-body (A320neo, 737 MAX) and wide-body (787, A350, 777X) aircraft. Narrow-body share is rising from about 62% to 68% of the global fleet by 2035, driven by increasing demand in Asia-Pacific and emerging markets.
• Assess the role of advanced materials (composites, lightweight alloys) in fuel-burn reduction and how they shift OEM margins.
• Understand how avionics, aircraft electrical systems, and in-flight entertainment are increasingly bundled into platform pricing.
• Note that stringent safety regulations require substantial investments in compliance, and regulatory compliance increases costs for aerospace manufacturers.

Passenger experience and connectivity systems:

• In-flight entertainment and connectivity (IFEC), in-flight internet, and cabin interiors are seeing surging demand as airlines compete on passenger experience.
• Aviation analytics for fuel and route optimization, and inflight retail, are increasingly data-driven.
• Digital technologies in cabin management and airline operations are a growing emphasis for broad-range carriers worldwide.

Aftermarket and MRO:

• The global MRO market is projected to reach roughly $156 billion by 2035, from about $119 billion in 2025. The digital MRO market is expected to grow to $2 billion by 2030.
• MRO services are evolving to focus on refurbishing and recycling components to minimize waste.
• Regional MRO capacity shifts: the Middle East and Asia-Pacific are increasing share as airlines and governments invest in local capabilities. Companies are focusing on localization and regional partnerships to manage supply chain volatility.

Data sources: airline financial reports, OEM delivery schedules, airport slot and traffic data, and expert commentary via FieldSignal interviews with airline network planners and MRO executives.

To research an investment in an IFEC vendor from 2026 to 2030, you'd define the use case (narrow-body retrofit vs. new-build), forecast narrow-body deliveries, estimate connectivity adoption rate per aircraft, model revenue per seat, then validate via expert calls with IFEC suppliers and airline fleet managers. Stress-test for spectrum constraints, certification costs, and OEM bundling pressure. Air cargo and widebody demand patterns may also influence the thesis depending on the vendor's product mix.

Researching defense and security markets: programs, budgets, and primes

The defense industry within aerospace is shaped by multi-year budgets, long procurement cycles, and a small number of prime contractors: Lockheed Martin, RTX (Raytheon Technologies), Northrop Grumman, BAE Systems plc, General Dynamics, and Saab AB. Trade disputes can lead to delays in aerospace production, and geopolitical instability can alter defense procurement decisions.

Key verticals to cover:

• Military aircraft and helicopters: fighters (F-35, F-15EX), transports, rotary-wing platforms.
• Integrated air and missile defense: radars, interceptors, command-and-control networks.
• C-UAS (counter-drone) and drone communication, plus unmanned aerial systems of all sizes.
• Directed energy weapons, defense cybersecurity, and military cloud computing.
• The adoption of agentic AI and collaborative combat aircraft is reshaping the aerospace industry. Defense portfolios are focusing on accelerating the deployment of AI-enabled systems. US A&D spending on AI is projected to reach $5.8 billion by 2029.

Working from national defense strategies and FY2026 to FY2031 budget documents:

• Start with top-line procurement numbers, then drill into service-level allocations (Army, Navy, Air Force, Space Force).
• Map specific contract opportunities and platform lots. For example, the U.S. DoD FY2026 procurement request targets aircraft platforms, sensors, and unmanned systems.
• Track international collaboration, including NATO members increasing defense budgets toward 2% of GDP. National security priorities are a driving force behind these commitments.

Competitive analysis:

• Map which primes dominate which domains. Lockheed Martin leads in fighters and missile defense. RTX dominates sensors and C-UAS. BAE Systems leads in ammunition and armored vehicles. Smaller software-first players compete in cybersecurity and autonomous systems.
• The industry is increasingly adopting AI-enabled systems to improve operational efficiency. AI could enhance 36% of industrial tasks by 2029. AI talent demand in A&D is expected to grow significantly by 2028, and the percentage of job postings requiring data analysis skills will rise to 14% by 2028.

FieldSignal's role: using former program office staff, ex-prime capture managers, and retired officers to validate RFP timing, down-select criteria, and perceived strengths and weaknesses of target vendors. For example, if you're evaluating a company exposed to C-UAS and loitering munitions over a 2026 to 2030 forecast period, you'd forecast demand from U.S., EU, and Middle East defense budgets, assess which primes or subcontractors dominate, then conduct interviews with procurement officers to understand margins and competitive dynamics.

Emerging domains: UAM, eVTOL, electric and hydrogen-enabled aerospace

Urban air mobility, eVTOL aircraft, commercial electric aircraft, and hydrogen-enabled aviation attract outsized investor attention relative to current revenue. Revenue today is small. But these segments are critical for long-term theses, especially beyond 2030.

What to research for UAM and eVTOL:

• Lift technologies: lift-plus-cruise, multirotor, vectored thrust. MTOW bands that are practical for air taxi vs. air cargo.
• Certification timelines: FAA's powered-lift category and EASA SC-VTOL, with realistic dates through 2030. Joby is reportedly roughly 85% through FAA type certification.
• Key players: Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation, Lilium, Volocopter, EHang, and others. The eVTOL aircraft market is projected to grow from USD 3.19 billion in 2031 to USD 5.08 billion by 2035.
• Recent developments in rapid prototyping and digital technologies are accelerating airframe iteration cycles.

Electric and hydrogen aircraft:

• Investment in electric propulsion and hydrogen-powered aircraft is increasing. More-electric aircraft architectures, battery chemistries (energy densities, safety, weight), and fuel cells are all active R&D areas.
• The aerospace industry is accelerating the adoption of Sustainable Aviation Fuels due to decarbonization pressure. An increasing focus on SAF and alternative fuels will stimulate growth across the fuel supply chain.
• There's a notable shift toward hybrid architectures as a bridge before full-electric viability.

Infrastructure dependencies:

• Hydrogen hubs, vertiport infrastructure, and airspace integration with modernized air traffic management systems.
• VSAT and optical satellite communication for connected operations. VSAT terminals are projected to grow from roughly USD 11.86 billion in 2025 toward USD 35 billion by 2035.
• The widespread adoption of these platforms depends on regulatory alignment, noise regulations, and power grid capacity. International collaboration between regulators is a prerequisite.

FieldSignal helps here by sourcing niche experts: certification engineers, former FAA and EASA regulators, and early UAM program managers. These conversations test marketing claims against reality, covering certification slip-ups, battery maturity, vertiport permitting delays, and actual customer interest vs. press releases.

Applying machine learning and advanced analytics in aerospace research

Machine learning is already used within the aerospace industry for predictive maintenance, aviation analytics, and AI in aviation applications. The same tools help you as a researcher handle large, messy datasets when doing aerospace market research.

Data sources where ML adds value:

• Parsing contract award databases (and applying systematic channel checks) to track which aerospace companies are winning what, and at what price points.
• Scraping aircraft registry changes (tail-number data) to track fleet movements, retirements, and operator shifts.
• Clustering patent filings in advanced materials, avionics, and propulsion to spot technology trends before they hit public markets.
• Classifying SATCOM and VSAT service offerings by frequency band, throughput, and target customer to map competitive positioning.

Specific methods:

• Time-series models for fleet utilization and delivery rate forecasting across the forecast period.
• NLP on earnings call transcripts from major players, such as Boeing, Honeywell, and Northrop Grumman, to extract sentiment and forward-looking language.
• Anomaly detection for order backlog shifts, sudden production rate changes, or supply chain disruptions.
• Scenario modeling for fuel price impacts and SAF penetration curves through 2030.

Limitations you should know:

• Sparse data for classified defense programs. You can't model what you can't see.
• Survivorship bias in public company disclosures. Companies talk about wins, not losses.
• Model outputs need validation through expert interviews. AI and generative AI spending in A&D is expected to reach USD 5.8 billion by 2029, but spending doesn't equal adoption.

FieldSignal combines human experts with data science support. For example, you'd use ML to pre-identify themes from public data ("battery energy density targets slipping," "orders delayed due to export controls"), then run targeted expert calls to confirm what's actually happening on the production line.

Comparing research options: big networks, off-the-shelf reports, and FieldSignal

Aerospace buyers typically choose among three research sources: large expert networks on opaque retainers, static syndicated reports, and boutique pay-per-use expert networks like FieldSignal.

Other networks you'll encounter in this space include Guidepoint, Tegus, AlphaSense, Capvision, ProSapient, Coleman Research, Atheneum, Mosaic, and Inex One. Each has trade-offs. The key question is whether you need a six-figure annual contract to access quality experts in aerospace.

FieldSignal's positioning:

• Transparent pricing with pass-through call costs. No markup on expert honoraria.
• No annual retainer and no minimum commitment. One call or twenty.
• Compliance processes (conflict checks, NDAs, expert vetting) equivalent to larger networks.
• Accessible to PE/VC funds, boutique consultancies, and mid-market strategy teams.

When static reports are useful: baseline TAM sizing, segment definitions, historical data benchmarks, thought leadership framing. When they fail: program-level nuance, emerging players, real-time supply chain risk, certification timelines, and complex market trends that shift quarter to quarter.

Typical use cases for you: pre-investment DD on an avionics or SATCOM player, product roadmap validation at an OEM supplier, competitive landscape scans in C-UAS, or market entry assessment for rising demand segments like connected aircraft or digital MRO.

Structuring an aerospace market research project: step-by-step

Aerospace work goes wrong when teams skip scoping and jump into data. Here's a process for a typical 4 to 6 week project.

1. Clarify the decision and forecast period. Example: evaluating entry into UAV payloads from 2026 to 2031.
2. Build an initial market map across commercial and defense use cases. Identify which segments matter and which don't.
3. Gather secondary data: OEM delivery schedules, defense budget documents, existing aerospace reports, regulatory filings.
4. Run 5 to 10 FieldSignal expert interviews. Target different profiles: OEM engineers, procurement officers, regulatory experts, component suppliers.
5. Synthesize into scenarios and financial models. Build baseline, constrained, and bullish cases.
6. Stress-test with a second wave of targeted calls. Validate assumptions, check for risks you missed.
7. Finalize implications for valuation, entry mode, or product roadmap. For example: what happens if battery energy density is 20% lower than forecast, or if certification delays push revenue out by two years?

Worked example: assessing a potential investment in an in-flight entertainment provider with exposure to narrow-body fleets. You'd forecast narrow-body deliveries through 2030, map the vendor's customer concentration, interview airline fleet managers and competing IFEC suppliers, then model revenue under varying adoption and retrofit scenarios.

Pitfalls to watch:

• Over-trusting global CAGRs. They mask wide regional and segment variation. Substantial growth at the global level can coexist with flat or declining sub-segments.
• Ignoring certification timelines and export controls. Stringent safety regulations require substantial investments in compliance, and these costs can break a thesis.
• Underestimating OEM bargaining power. Platform OEMs squeeze suppliers on price and timeline. Your target company's margins might be thinner than their pitch deck suggests.

How FieldSignal supports aerospace and defense research teams

FieldSignal's core offer to aerospace and defense clients: expert consultations, custom research, and transcript access with no retainers and transparent per-project pricing.

Specific aerospace use cases FieldSignal regularly supports:

• Competitive landscape scans around BAE Systems or Lockheed Martin programs.
• Market entry assessments for connected aircraft, avionics, or satellite communication vendors.
• Product roadmap validation for AI in aviation vendors and advanced systems suppliers.
• Leadership assessments at target acquisition companies.
• Customer satisfaction studies with end users of defense systems or airline operations platforms.

Process details:

• Typical turnaround to schedule expert calls: 2 to 5 business days.
• Compliance and conflict checks handled before every engagement.
• Interview guides co-designed with PE/VC associates, corporate strategy teams, and consultants.

No minimum commitment. Suitable for one-off aerospace diligence or recurring research programs. Per-call honoraria passed through at cost. If you're priced out of GLG-tier contracts or disappointed by low-quality marketplaces, FieldSignal is a practical option for aerospace market research without the overhead.

Next steps

You should now understand:

• The major aerospace segments (commercial, defense, space, emerging mobility) and how to size them.
• How to combine quantitative forecasts with expert insight to pressure-test any thesis.
• How to structure a research project over a defined forecast period, whether 2026 to 2030 or 2026 to 2035.

Immediate actions:

• Shortlist 1 to 2 priority segments. UAVs, IFEC, AI in aviation, and satellite communication are all areas with rising demand and active deal flow.
• Define your forecast period and build a focused market map.
• Draft 5 to 7 key questions to bring to experts. Focus on what you can't answer from public data alone.

See if FieldSignal fits your project.