I left the role in late 2025 after twelve years in luxury retail, the last six as store director at the Paris flagship. The Chinese-buyer dynamics over 2024-2025 were the most material change to category economics I'd seen in my career.
Pre-COVID, the Chinese buyer was the dominant volume driver in European luxury retail. Chinese travelers accounted for somewhere in the range of 30-40% of total retail revenue at the major flagship stores, depending on year and category. The shopping patterns were predictable: travel-retail at the airports, organised tour groups visiting specific flagship stores, premium SKU purchases driven by both personal use and gifting.
The 2020-2023 period disrupted this entirely. Chinese international travel restrictions reduced the volume to a fraction of pre-COVID levels. The category compensated through stronger domestic-buyer growth in Europe and in mainland China specifically, but the overall economic equation was meaningfully reset.
The expectation through 2023 had been a strong Chinese-traveler return as restrictions lifted. The actual 2024 reality was much more muted. Volume returned but at maybe 60-70% of pre-COVID levels through 2024 and into 2025. Average spend per traveler also moderated; the discretionary-luxury appetite from Chinese buyers shifted as economic conditions in China weakened.
More interestingly, the shopping behaviour itself changed. The 2024-2025 Chinese buyer was materially more focused on classic, durable, investment-purchase SKUs — and materially less interested in the newer, more fashion-driven product lines. This shifted the product mix in the store significantly. Iconic SKUs sold through; newer launches struggled. For brands whose growth thesis depended on category expansion into newer product lines, this was a particular challenge.
Looking ahead to 2026, I see continued moderation of the Chinese-traveler share. The structural drivers — Chinese economic conditions, the rise of domestic luxury consumption within China, the emergence of Chinese-market exclusive product lines — all point toward European flagship stores being less Chinese-dependent than they were pre-COVID. The brands adapting well are restructuring their European flagship operations around a more diverse buyer mix, with deliberate investment in Middle Eastern, American and Southeast Asian buyer development.